ICICI Direct’s currency report on USDINR

The US dollar index bounced back from its week’s low after sliding towards the key 102 level. However, a decline in US consumer spending growth index weighed on dollar to stay under 102.60 mark. The US 10 and two year treasury yields declined the most on Friday after key PCE numbers fell to 4.6% against the January reading of 4.7% • Rupee future maturing on April 26 appreciated by 0.14% to 82.32 amid strong recovery in domestic equities • The rupee is likely to trade with a positive bias amid improved global risk sentiments. Further, hopes of a less aggressive stance from the Fed towards higher interest rate would also check the upside in the dollar. The pair US$INR, has been hovering below the key 20 day EMA at 82.35, suggesting a weaker bias. Hence, as long as it trades under 82.35 it is likely to move towards the initial support at 82.05. A move below 82.05 would lead to a further slide towards 81.84.

Intra-day strategy

USDINR Apr futures contract (NSE)
Sell USDINR in the range of 82.32-82.35
Target:82.05 Stoploss: 89.50
Support: 82.05/81.90 Resistance: 82.35/82.50

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03042023 – curr